As a child, I had an unhealthy relationship with food. One day, after promising to not overeat, my mother caught me at the fridge, gorging on cheese. Her words stayed with me: “You may think you’re lying to me, but you’re lying to yourself.”

We do that a lot, lie to ourselves.

I don’t like making predictions, but I’ll make one now. I’m confident it’ll pan out: organizations cutting staff “because AI” will come to regret that choice.

That’s not to say I believe that’s why they’re actually laying people off. Many orgs were likely overstaffed. AI is just the excuse leaders are giving Wall Street. Perhaps some believe it. If so, they’re lying to themselves. And there will be consequences.

As the class “fat kid,” I was bullied. It affected my personality. I became simultaneously shy and viciously sardonic. My grades suffered. I’m still paying the price for the fridge “easy fix” decades ago. Near-term pleasure, long-term suffering.

Orgs cutting staff are being rewarded with a near-term financial boost. What might be some long-term consequences?

I see at least three:

  1. Reduced trust. The people who remain still have work to do. That includes deploying AI, a technology they now viscerally perceive as a threat. They’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t. And their leaders have made clear what they value.

  2. Brand erosion. Wall Street isn’t the only audience: customers are listening too. And they’re likely (and rightly) concerned that the org seeks to replace human judgment. We’ve been burned before: that’s why the word ‘enshittification’ exists.

  3. Loss of culture and knowledge. Much of how organizations produce value isn’t formally codified. In many ways, an org is its people — their shared culture and knowledge, most of which is tacit. The data AI needs about how orgs tick doesn’t exist.

Humans aren’t mere resources. Organizations are complex adaptive systems where people play critical roles that extend well beyond their job descriptions. For many orgs, interpersonal relations are the golden egg-laying goose.

Current AI can’t bridge these gaps. Leaders who believe it can are either deluded about its capabilities, the true nature and complexity of the business, or both. Or they’re lying to themselves.

My mother was right. You may think you’re cleverly misdirecting others, but you’re only misdirecting yourself. And the consequences will haunt you.

I’ve been pretty glum on this note, but that’s because I don’t like what I’m seeing. So I’ll leave you with the positive flipside of my prediction: The organizations that thrive in the AI era will be those who augment and empower their people — not those who cut them.

The technology is capable, but it will require lots of work. The challenge is architecture, not headcount.

This post first appeared in my newsletter.