Alas, it’s time once again to revisit VUCA.

Early in the pandemic, I gave two presentations about dealing with uncertainty. Institutions were struggling to respond to COVID. Many people were freaking out. But not me: I had a conceptual framework that helped me make sense of what was going on.

Now that we’re again living through uncertainty, I wanted to share what I said at the time. Turns out, I never wrote about the framework itself. Let’s correct that.

When contexts shift, it’s harder to act skillfully. The end of the Cold War was such a time. The tense order that emerged after World War II had ended; military leaders had to make decisions in unfamiliar territory.

In response, the U.S. Army War College produced VUCA, a framework for describing unsettling contexts. It’s an acronym of their four main characteristics:

  • Volatility: things are changing fast and often. You may understand what’s happening, but the pace of change makes it hard to respond skillfully.
  • Uncertainty: you may understand the challenge’s basic cause and effect, but not much else. Key knowledge might be missing, but you don’t know.
  • Complexity: the challenge has too many factors and components to grok. You have access to information — perhaps too much to connect the dots.
  • Ambiguity: the situation is unclear, even if you have information. Causal relationships aren’t obvious, and past experiences may not apply.

These four characteristics are often rendered in a 2x2 matrix. One dimension measures the degree to which we can predict the results of our actions. The other measures how much we know. For example, if we can’t predict outcomes and lack reliable knowledge, we’re in ambiguity. If we understand the situation but things are changing rapidly, we’re facing volatility.

A 2x2 matrix illustrating the VUCA framework. The horizontal axis is labeled “How much do you know about the situation?” ranging from low (left) to high (right). The vertical axis is labeled “How well can you predict the results of your actions?” ranging from low (bottom) to high (top). The four quadrants are labeled: Top left: Complexity; Top right: Volatility; Bottom left: Ambiguity; Bottom right: Uncertainty. Each quadrant represents a different type of challenge in decision-making and strategic environments. Adapted from a diagram by Nate Bennett and G. James Lemoine in the [Harvard Business Review]((https://hbr.org/2014/01/what-vuca-really-means-for-you))

Adapted from a diagram by Nate Bennett and G. James Lemoine in the Harvard Business Review

As you may expect, different characteristics call for different responses. My understanding comes from Bob Johansen’s VUCA Prime framework, which I paraphrase here:

  • Volatility calls for vision. Draw a clear, compelling picture of where you’re heading beyond the current turmoil.
  • Uncertainty calls for understanding. Look past headlines to the deeper forces driving change.
  • Complexity calls for clarity. Map the system; get a grip on the entities and relationships driving change.
  • Ambiguity calls for agility. Take the next small step; get your bearings; correct course quickly.

Keeping cool isn’t easy, but it can be done. It requires some detachment. Tune out the news and take a longer-term view. Read the Stoics. Ask yourself: what’s the worst that could happen? How much is actually under your control? How can you take care of yourself, your family, and your community?

Managing and structuring information flows is crucial. You need systems that surface the right information — clear, trustworthy, timely, and aligned with your goals. Information architects can help, since our focus is designing environments that support insight and skillful action.

Above all, don’t panic. Nobody guaranteed this would be an easy ride. Change is the nature of things. If you panic, you’ll freeze or thrash about; either response makes things worse. Business as usual isn’t in the cards for us, but acting skillfully can be.

If you found these ideas useful, check out Johansen’s Leaders Make the Future, which offers ten skills leaders can develop to thrive in a VUCA world. Much of what I know about the subject comes from this practical, well-grounded book. (Aaand… I just realized there’s a new edition — time to re-visit!)