I’m keen on frameworks that help us deal with change in complex systems. The Cynefin framework is particularly illuminating. Here’s an excellent, succinct introduction by its originator, Dave Snowden:
The framework posits that causal differences in systems categorize them into four domains or “spaces”:
Simple: Cause and effect relationships between elements in the system can be determined in advance.
Complicated: Cause and effect relationships exist, but aren’t self-evident.
Complex: No causality; agents are able to modify the system.
Chaotic: Cause and effect relationships can’t be determined.
“Dependent on which space you’re in,” Mr. Snowden says, “you should think differently, you should analyze differently.” In other words, each of the domains calls for a different response. Therefore, knowing which domain you’re acting within is key to making effective decisions. That said, in some cases, you may not know which domain you’re acting within. The framework defines this fifth domain as “disorder,” a situation that lends itself to idiosyncratic responses that can be ineffective or worse.